12/16/2007

The Comeback Kid

The Boston Globe

By James Carville 
 
December 16, 2007

THE 1992 Democratic New Hampshire primary was truly unique in recent presidential politics. It was the only time in a recent presidential nominating process that Iowa was not contested. The New Hampshire primary became the voters' first verdict on the candidates. As some old salts will recall, Tom Harkin, the popular Democratic senator from Iowa, was a candidate and the other campaigns wisely decided to concede the Iowa caucuses to him. As contrasted with 2008, the Iowa caucuses in 1992 were a political nonevent. The net result of this was to make New Hampshire even more contested and definitive in the 1992 primaries. We lived and breathed New Hampshire from New Year's Day to election night, Feb. 18, 1992, in what was without a doubt the most intense 49 days in my life.

It was an incredibly memorable time for me. It was my first presidential campaign. It was a real introduction into the difference between running state and national campaigns. It was all just a little much for a guy from Louisiana to find himself in the middle of the biggest show on earth.

Everybody in the political world was hanging out in the Sheraton Wayfarer bar. On any given night you might see Al Hunt, Bay Buchanan, Bob Shrum, and Bob Novak huddled together engaging in a loud discussion of the events that had transpired that day. And boy, quite a few dramatic events transpired in the six weeks from New Year's Day to Feb. 17, 1992, in the Granite State.

That winter in New Hampshire we faced Gennifer Flowers, Stuttering John of "The Howard Stern Show," the death penalty for Ricky Ray Rector, and Colonel Holmes and the draft letter. Remember the "60 Minutes" interview about Gennifer Flowers? It took place in Boston, at the old Ritz-Carlton. Of course, the pace was so hectic and the sleep so little, I never really knew if I was in New Hampshire or Massachusetts.

Then there was Leonora Fulani. She was the New Alliance Party candidate, and when she was excluded from a debate she would kick up a fit. Fulani could yell louder than any 10 people I ever knew. Her vocal cords ought to be in the Smithsonian Institution.

Being from Louisiana, I could not believe how unbelievably cold New Hampshire got. My most searing memory of 1992 is of a pig roast doomed by that icy winter. Much as in the current Clinton campaign, there was a group of people that traveled to New Hampshire from Arkansas to walk precincts and make phone calls. Being away from home, they decided to throw a pig roast on a lake north of Concord.

I thought Arkansas was already pretty far north. Consequently, I showed up in running shoes. Bad move. The crowning event of the day was that the pig could not be convinced to defrost over the fire. After a great deal of consultation it was decided we would have to abandon the pig and drink more beer. At least the beer did not freeze.

We had started out strong. Bill Clinton had a plan for the future, and people were responding to him. On Jan. 19, The Boston Globe published a poll showing us ahead of the field with 29 percent, Paul Tsongas with 17 percent, and Bob Kerrey 16. On the campaign, we were working hard and there was a strong current of optimism.

As the campaign progressed, Clinton headed up hundreds of rallies, made dozens of shopping-mall visits, and campaigned fiercely in every coffee shop and supermarket he could find. With New Hampshire being a pretty small state, he was getting a lot done face to face.

Then came Gennifer Flowers. After a few days, we concluded we could weather the storm. Polls showed that support was eroding, but not quickly. The general consensus was that if we could win New Hampshire or even come in a close second, it'd be a monumental feat. And that was even before they started calling him a draft dodger, before Ricky Ray Rector. In the following weeks, we got hit with negative press from all angles.

With one night left, the polls looked bad. I knew that if we ran third in New Hampshire, we were out of the race. Staffers were talking as if the campaign would soon be over. Then the next day, Feb. 18, the first exit poll came back positive. After the 2 o'clock numbers held up, we started drafting a speech. Paul Begala came up with the line about the "Comeback Kid," and we got ahead of the story early in the night.

It was a personally and politically significant primary. In the face of all that adversity, we managed to win in New Hampshire by losing by 8 points. The press did not care that local boy Tsongas had won the primary; they were fascinated that Clinton came in a relatively close second. Clinton became the "Comeback Kid," and then the first president elected without winning the New Hampshire primary.

James Carville was campaign strategist for Bill Clinton.